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In Basketball

Sharife Cooper Is the Next Pick and Roll Maestro

July 28, 2021 No Comments

Before we start up this draft profile, I want to give you all a blind resume of two players’ stat line per 40 minutes.

Per-40	Pts	Asts	TOs	Rebs	Stls	FG%	3pt%	FT%	FTA	FGA
A	30.9	9.8	5.9	4.4	1.9	42.2%	36%	86.1%	9.7	21.8
B	24.4	9.8	5	5.1	1.2	39.1%	22.8%	82.5%	10.4	18.5

Pretty similar, right? One would think stat lines that close to each other would mean both players are of comparable caliber, huh? Well, Player A is what Atlanta Hawks’ superstar Trae Young pulled off during his lone season at Oklahoma. Who is player B? Don’t worry, I got you. The answer to that question would be… Auburn’s Sharife Cooper.

Granted, Trae Young played a full season at Oklahoma, while Sharife Cooper only played 12 games this season for the Auburn Tigers. but I think it is important to bring Trae Young up and what he did in these playoffs when assessing Cooper’s potential. Now, I’m not saying that Cooper is for sure going to be ‘the next Trae Young,’ but both play with similar styles. I think it is important to bring Trae Young up though and what he did in these playoffs when assessing Sharife Cooper’s potential. In a pick-and-roll-centric league, Young dominated each and every one of his NBA opponents with his supreme blend of playmaking and scoring in that regard. Cooper could possibly be the best pick-and-roll playmaker in this draft outside of Cade Cunningham, but he needs to improve as a shooter to maximize his potential. We’ll talk about that later. But what may be stood out the most to me watching Trae in the playoffs was how he was able to survive on the defensive end of the floor.

I think this is the most important piece of this conversation. The expectation from many, including myself, was for Trae Young to get massacred on the defensive end of the floor. That simply did not happen. Young was mostly able to hide on spot-up shooters, hedge when forced to come up in ball-screens and fight to not relinquish his plush defensive duties while the Hawks’ primary defender fought to get back to his man. On top of that, even when the offense won this power struggle, Young was adequate enough to be far from bbq chicken. This stop on Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo will forever ring in my mind to give Young his respect as a defender in the postseason because he stepped up to the challenge, despite his diminutive size at 6’1” 180 pounds.

As luck would have it, Sharife Cooper’s size is comparable to Young’s at… 6’1” 180 pounds! On top of that, the times I’ve seen Cooper play, he gets after it defensively. Cooper moves his feet well and has good hands to get steals and deflections. Cooper is not afraid of withstanding contact either. This play is a great example.

Cooper is right there with Devontae Shuler of Ole Miss, a talented scorer in his own right, matching Shuler stride for stride to give him a solid contest at the rim. This was not an isolated incident, either. No one is going to mistake Cooper for Marcus Smart or Jrue Holiday as a defender, but to me, he showed more often than not he’s up to the task defensively and could stay on the floor in pressured situations, especially if he’s asked to hide on lesser offensive players the way Young was.

Where Sharife Cooper needs to make up ground, however, is his shooting. We all knew Young could scorch the earth from distance while at Norman and uses that to his advantage in the NBA to get to his patented floater. Cooper does not have that same luxury. He shot just 22.8% from deep at Auburn this past season. The advanced numbers don’t paint a rosy picture either. According to Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman, Cooper generated less than 0.7 points per possession when shooting off the dribble this season. Whether his defenders would get caught on screens or they’d go under, Cooper simply didn’t make defenses pay when he got cut off from the paint.

I think Sharife Cooper can improve as a shooter and finisher, though. Cooper did shoot 82.5% from the free-throw line this season, which has been a better indicator of shooting success over the years than three-point percentages. Though floaters are not there in his bag quite yet, he’s shown he does have soft touch around the rim.

We’ve also seen plenty of instances where guys enter the league not known as shooters only to improve once they’re coached up and have more time to focus solely on basketball. Guys like Lonzo Ball, Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, and plenty others are just a few examples. Cooper is not a great shooter right now, but it certainly is an area where others have improved, and Cooper has a baseline to get better to be a threat from the outside.

Just because Sharife Cooper’s jumper isn’t up to par yet, that doesn’t mean he can’t score. Cooper has a great handle to match top speed to be able to get by his defender to the rim when he has that runway to get there. Cooper also matches that handle and speed with excellent patience and a change of speeds in the halfcourt to throw off defenders and buy himself extra time and separation to get where he ultimately wants to go. He does all that but also doesn’t mind physicality either. You don’t just luck into 8.6 free throw attempts per game. In fact, Cooper managed to attempt at least 10 free throws in half of his games this season, including a gargantuan 21 attempts in an upset win over Missouri in January. Cooper’s shiftiness matched with his speed and poise to attack once he sees daylight is what allows him to be able to be such an effective scorer without a dependable jumper to rely upon at the moment. Watch how he combines all of those attributes here to earn himself some free throws.

Getting a jumper is important because it can set up his best and most important skill: his passing. In a draft with Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Scottie Barnes, Josh Giddey, Cooper might be the best of them all when it comes to passing and playmaking. He is an absolute savant of a playmaker who manipulates defenders like a puppet master. He sometimes sees plays so quickly that his own teammates don’t even suspect it.

In the pick and roll, he sees everything. What stands out so much about Cooper running pick and roll is his patience reading the floor. He will hardly ever rush or force a pass. Instead, he lets plays develop and pounces on scrambling defenses. A lot like what guys like Trae Young, Ja Morant, Luka Doncic, and others do, when he sees the weakside defender tagging the roll man, Cooper will laser the ball to the player that defender is guarding like it’s nothing. Advanced reads and passes like this are not that common amongst NBA stars, let alone prospects.

His playmaking genius applies against zone defenses as well. What’s great about Cooper’s playmaking is that he sets up his teammates to succeed in situations that won’t always lead him to assists. He’ll rack up a ton of hockey assists as well when defenses send extra attention his way and force him to give it up. This play here is an ultimate example. Ole Miss’ defenders at the top of the zone creep up towards Cooper, so he sets up teammate JT Thor in the middle of the zone, who then zips a pass to another teammate for a layup.

This play right here encapsulates Sharife Cooper and his talent level in a nutshell. He gets a stop on a drive at the rim, gets the outlet pass, and rifles a bounce pass from one end of the court to the other.

Sharife Cooper’s feel and playmaking are not easy to find. He really does look like guards of Trae Young and Ja Morant’s level as a passer and playmaker. We just saw Young absolutely dominate the playoffs and carry his team way sooner than expected to the Eastern Conference Finals and what could have been the NBA Finals had he not turned his foot on the shoe of a referee. Again, I’m not saying that Sharife Cooper is going to be the next Trae Young, but his playmaking and frame make it hard not to think of Young when watching Cooper play. Young showed a guard like him can lead a team to playoff prominence. Wouldn’t more teams want a guy like Trae Young?

The NBA is a pick-and-roll game. Sharife Cooper has all the talent in the world to be a big-time difference-making star for whatever team that drafts him, in my opinion. While I’ve made the comp to Trae Young for Cooper, I’m not expecting him to replicate Young and his outstanding achievements, but Young’s success perhaps opens more doors for Cooper to get the chance to attempt to do the same than otherwise. Cooper has work to do with his shooting to enter that stratosphere, but I firmly believe he has what it takes to get there. I think Sharife Cooper should be at minimum a lottery pick and work his way inside the top ten. I’m all in on the Sharife Cooper bandwagon, and there’s plenty of room and time to hop aboard.

In Basketball

Evan Mobley Is the Next Unicorn Big Man

July 26, 2021 No Comments

The NBA has revolutionized. The pick and roll has completely taken over the game. Thus, the emphasis and importance of having the top-of-the-line pick-and-roll creators that can bend the game to their will are at the top of the minds of NBA teams. The bigger the creator, the better. That’s why Cade Cunningham is at the top of seemingly everyone’s draft boards, and rightfully so. That’s how Luka Doncic can step into the NBA and immediately dominate it. It’s why LeBron James is arguably the greatest player of all time. That isn’t to say Cunningham is going to be either of those two, or anything close, but I do happen to think he is going to be great because he has the facilities to play a similar style those two shares as well.

You don’t have to be 6’8” or above to dominate the pick and roll either, though. We just saw Trae Young will his Atlanta Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals way ahead of schedule. Neither Chris Paul nor Devin Booker exceeds 71 inches in height, but they’ve led their teams to the NBA Finals executing the most beautiful and sophisticated pick and roll attack in the NBA today. Look across the landscape of playoff teams and you will find far more dynamic pick and roll creators than skilled, difference-making big men. This shifting NBA landscape is how and why G League Ignite alum Jalen Green is gaining momentum towards being the second pick in the upcoming NBA Draft and could maybe push Cade Cunningham for the top spot.

Yes, it is harder to build around a big man as an offense’s primary option and focal point in today’s NBA. Just look at the Philadelphia 76ers and the constant juggling of their roster surrounding Joel Embiid trying to find the right fits around him, and part (most?) of the reason for their yearly postseason flameouts is the lack of a signature pick and roll creator. Tobias Harris being your primary perimeter creator in the halfcourt and Ben Simmons’s lack of evolution in this field has proven to not be enough.

The Sixers are just one example though. Teams building relying on big men as top-notch offenses still have enjoyed success in recent seasons. Though the Los Angeles Lakers are fortunate to have LeBron James on their roster, Anthony Davis was just as big a factor in their quest to a championship a season ago as the perfect pick and roll dance partner to go alongside LeBron James. Giannis Antetokounmpo only recently becoming more accepting of being the screener and roller in the pick and roll this postseason has helped the Bucks advance further than they ever had in the Giannis era. Nikola Jokic just won the league’s MVP award this season.

Because here’s the thing: every pick and roll needs an avenue towards creating an advantage. And another thing: if you know your opponents are more and more frequenting toward the pick and roll as their primary offensive function, you need a way to stop it too. Though guards screening for each other has grown more and more in popularity (The Atlanta Hawks just used this to their advantage to oust the Sixers in the playoffs by picking on Seth Curry or Furkan Korkmaz every chance they got), it’s arguably easier to gain this advantage with the most versatile of versatile centers. Davis and Antetokounmpo’s combination of lob threats matched with either post force or finesse will either create easier opportunities for them to dominate switches against smaller defenders or their pick and roll partner to create great looks for themselves or their teammates. Neither are great shooters but Davis is at least a capable one from range who can stretch bigs off the floor if they’re unable to defend on the perimeter. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray feed off of each other better than perhaps any duo in the entire NBA. Switching is non-negotiable or else Murray is roasting a center in isolation or Jokic is picking a scrambling defense apart. Both the Bucks and Nuggets had offenses finish inside the top six in the NBA during the regular season, according to NBA.com. The Lakers were tenth in offensive rating at the time Davis got injured and before their season got derailed, so teams can have success offensively off the strength of a big man and have it carry over to success in the postseason. However, the common threading between those teams is they all have a pick and roll partner (LeBron James, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, Jamal Murray) to accentuate their strengths.

So, what’s more important: the dynamic creator capable of creating shots for himself or others and able to bend the game to their will, or the versatile big who can punish mismatches, finish at the rim, and score on the perimeter as well? The answer is… it depends. If you have a big, bruising, playmaking wing who can score like a guard as well as a LeBron James or Luka Doncic, that should be priority number one, in my opinion. But if there is a big man who *can* stretch the floor, punish mismatches, be a lob threat, pass out of double teams AND be able to defend all of those plays on the other end of the floor without putting your defense in a massive disadvantage the way an Anthony Davis or Giannis Antetokounmpo can do, I think recent NBA trends have shown they can be difference makers and ceiling raisers that can lead your team to championships. Perhaps the last two championships have shown that the NBA is changing again.

I swear all of this rambling is for a reason. It’s to get us talking about USC’s Evan Mobley. Mobley is in many ways similar to Davis and Giannis. Mobley is a long seven-footer who is extremely dynamic and versatile on both ends of the floor. In just about any other draft, Mobley could easily have his name called first by commissioner Adam Silver but could see himself fall to the third pick in the draft. According to Kevin O’Connor of ‘The Ringer’ the Rockets, holders of the second pick of the draft, currently favor Jalen Green at the moment. I don’t think the Rockets really could do anything wrong with Green or Mobley assuming Cade Cunningham is on his way to Detroit, but if we’re going to split hairs here, I’d slightly prefer Mobley and his supreme versatility than Green’s perimeter creation.

Let’s start defensively regarding Evan Mobley. Mobley is one of the better rim protectors I’ve ever seen at the collegiate ranks. Granted, the NCAA’s rules allowing players to camp out in the lane for more than three seconds really helps matters, but Mobley is already so great at positioning himself in the pick and roll, something that takes big men years to master. Mobley already has it down pat. Take this play as proof:

Mobley sticks himself right where he needs to be to take away both the threat of the lob pass and the mid-range jumper. But the job isn’t done yet. Oregon State’s ballhandler goes to the Nash dribble along the baseline to try to clear out the paint. Evan’s brother Isaiah takes the ballhandler and Evan takes Isaiah’s man in the paint. After that, Mobley sees a Beaver cutting to the rim and rotates over to block his shot. That’s pretty insane defense and just shows that Mobley is already ready to protect the paint. In an NBA that asks its players to switch onto guards and wings, Mobley is already capable of doing that too. He answers the bell of what NBA teams *need* from their big men in the modern game defensively.

Offensively, there just isn’t a lot Evan Mobley can’t do. Mobley wasn’t a great floor spacer, but that’s about it. But he can create space vertically, however. Last season, Mobley generated 1.089 points per possession as a roll man. Considering Andy Enfield’s insistence on cramping the spacing for his team as much as possible by pairing another big man alongside Evan Mobley, this is pretty damn impressive. Look how much attention Mobley garners in the paint when he rolls:

Evan Mobley can also get you a bucket with the ball in his hands. In isolation situations, Mobley generated 1.077 points per possession. That’s a monster number. Not many seven-footers can match athleticism with supreme skill and feel like this.

Ehh, just casually bringing the ball up the floor after a rebound, then spin to dribble at the rim with his off-hand and finish through contact for an and-1, no biggie. Good God, that’s incredible. That’s not just a thing Mobley can pull off in transition with a head of steam, either. Mobley can create shots like that off the dribble in the halfcourt, too.

Evan Mobley is already damn near impossible to guard as is, but what makes it all the more difficult to check him is his passing ability. Mobley averaged 2.4 assists per game, though did also put up 2.2 turnovers a game as well. To put that in context, however: Tennessee guard and possible lottery pick Keon Johnson averaged 2.5 assists per game with 2.6 turnovers a game, so you’re getting guard-like passing from Mobley as well. What is so great about Mobley is you can give him the ball at the elbows, run the offense through him, and know he’s going to make the right play and execute the offense.

What’s most noticeable from Evan Mobley’s feel and passing ability is how great he is passing out of double teams. It can take big men a very long time to be comfortable reading the floor and finding open teammates in the midst of chaos, but that’s a breeze for Mobley.

Look how patient Mobley is waiting until his teammate finds open space along the three-point arc. As soon as that happens, Mobley sends a laser from one of the floor to the other to create a wide-open three along the wing. Unfortunately, Mobley doesn’t get the assist here, but he was able to get countless others doing the same thing over the course of the season.

The NBA has changed, but it might be changing again. Though the NBA is now a perimeter, pick and roll centric game, there’s still room for bigs to wreck the game. With all this said, I’d still take Cade Cunningham first overall if I had to make the choice. Were someone to take Jalen Green second, I wouldn’t fault them whatsoever given the direction the league is going. For a big man to warrant a top-three pick, they have to be able to dominate on both ends of the floor. Fortunately, Mobley is a two-way force with the goods to make that so. It shouldn’t shock anybody if we look back on this draft class in five or ten years from now and refer to Mobley as the best player in this class that eventually leads whatever team that drafts him to a title. He’s that good and can change the direction of whatever franchise drafts him.

In Basketball

The First Round Game 1 Observations

May 24, 2021 No Comments

The NBA playoffs are mercifully back, and boy did it deliver as usual. Eight games in 48 hours with seven of those being decided by 11 points or less, two game-winners from the likes of Khris Middleton and Trae Young, and an even split of wins from home and road teams at four apiece. We’re just getting started. The playoffs are all adjustments, so I came up with something in each series that should be monitored that will impact a team’s chances in this crazy first round or later down the road should that team advance.

Bucks-Heat: The Brook Lopez Conundrum

A lot of consternation was made regarding Milwaukee’s utilization of big man Brook Lopez. I can understand head coach Mike Budenholzer’s line of thinking in this sense: Lopez can guard Bam Adebayo effectively 1v1 and forces Miami to guard him with Bam. Jimmy Butler can’t guard both Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday at the same time, so Miami opted for Jimmy to stick with Holiday, leaving Miami at a disadvantage by pinning Duncan Robinson to guard Middleton. Sure. But at the same time, that lets Miami hunt Lopez with Bam Adebayo – Duncan Robinson two-man action, and it worked time and time again. Robinson was 7-13 from deep, and the Heat were 20-50 from three as a whole. Putting in Bobby Portis or PJ Tucker in Lopez’s place still presents some matchup decisions for Miami to make while giving Milwaukee much more defensive flexibility. Milwaukee didn’t play a single second with Giannis and Tucker on the floor without Lopez or Portis. That’s a curious decision, especially with Giannis being able to guard Adebayo and Tucker doing a great job defending Butler throughout the game. Butler went a combined 2-12 from the field while being defended by Tucker and Giannis in Game 1 according to NBA.com. Not only can Milwaukee switch any action involving Miami’s two best players, but they can also switch anything involving Duncan Robinson (or Goran Dragic or Tyler Herro) to limit Miami’s three-point attempts. Portis and Tucker saw fewer minutes (18 and 17, respectively) *combined* than Lopez did (36). Milwaukee got away with one during Game 1. Miami likely won’t let them off the hook again if that type of shooting continues.

Clippers-Mavericks: The Clippers’ Shooting

The Clippers led the NBA in three-point shooting percentage-wise by hitting at a 41.4% clip this season. That came to a screeching halt on Saturday, where they shot 11-40. Even worse was the heavy reliance on contested pull-up jumpers from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Shooting such shots helped in their demise in the bubble, and if their supporting cast isn’t hitting from deep then driving lanes for a team that already struggles to get to the rim will get tighter and tighter. Kawhi and George shot just 15 shots in the paint during their Game 1 loss but did shoot 14 free throws between the pair. Kawhi and George aren’t great playmakers either, and their first instinct is to get theirs rather than set up someone else. Getting those easy points will be crucial to staving off droughts and runs from the opposition. If they don’t get the spacing they need, their ability to do that will be even harder.

Nets-Celtics: The Big 3’s Process

Hot take alert!: The Nets are going to win this series. The Celtics just don’t have the firepower to keep up with them. While the Nets should win this series regardless, the process from their Big 3 did not look crisp. Then again, how could it with Game 1 being just the ninth time all season all three have played together in the same game? I felt a lot of ‘your turn, my turn’ ball, with one possession being consumed by one star trying to get a bucket in isolation and the next a different star trying to do the same thing. They can at least maneuver switches and rotations any way they want by involving two stars in a sequence together and moving off of that. I expect we’ll see more of that going forward because what we saw Saturday night offensively likely isn’t going to get the Nets through the East, no matter how loaded they are on that end.

Nuggets-Blazers: ‘Let Jokic Cook’

Presumptive MVP Nikola Jokic scored 34 points. He shot 27 shots from the field and went 3-4 from the free-throw line. However, Jokic registered just one measly assist. Jokic is the greatest passing big man ever, but the Blazers limited his ability to do so by staying home on his teammates. The numbers bear it out too. According to ESPN Stats and Info via Royce Young of ESPN, the Nuggets shot 1-10 off passes from Nikola Jokic. The process worked. I get the thought process behind it too: if you double, Jokic is so good that he’s going to find an open man somewhere, most times being in front of the rim or along the three-point line. But if you don’t double, there’s no one for him to find against a rotating defense in chaos. I get it, I don’t love the strategy, but the strategy surely worked in Game 1. I could easily be wrong here, but I’m not sure if that strategy will stand the test of time. Jokic is absolutely capable of dropping a 50-60 burger on Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter’s heads. Are you not going to double then? We’ll see. But props to the Blazers for finding a formula to help them take away home-court advantage from the Nuggets.

76ers-Wizards: Ben Simmons’ Aggression

This should be a confidence-boosting series for Ben Simmons. As I wrote about Simmons last week, he hasn’t always capitalized in the halfcourt against smaller defenders. Like I said with Jimmy Butler earlier, Rui Hachimura can’t guard Simmons and Tobias Harris (who had a field day against this Wizards squad, putting down a cool 37 piece early Sunday afternoon) at once. Still, despite being guarded by the likes of Bradley Beal, Russell Westbrook, and even Raul Neto, Simmons looked tentative, passing up drives and not looking to attack the rim. Yet in transition, he was still as sensational as always, finding teammates along the three-point line and rampaging to the rim. He still needs to be more of a factor in the halfcourt though for Philly to get to where it wants to go. The 15 assists Simmons provided is great, but scoring just six points on 3-9 from the field is unacceptable for a player of his talent. He’s certainly capable of more with his size and force. Let’s see if he follows through.

Suns-Lakers: The Lakers’ Big Man Rotation

Obviously, the biggest factor to keep an eye on is the health of Chris Paul. That goes without saying, and hopefully, he’s ok to keep pushing through in this series. That right shoulder he tweaked bumping into teammate Cam Johnson bugged him all throughout the remainder of that game. But before and after that mishap, the Lakers got torched in pick and roll. They gave nothing away. Paul and Devin Booker got to their sweet spots at the elbows; Deandre Ayton got layup after layup (and was a beast on the boards); Phoenix’s supporting cast got great looks at the rim and from deep (non-Jae Crowder Suns shot 9-21 from three, good for a 42.85% clip). Lakers center Andre Drummond is an easy punching bag but he feels like food for Paul and Booker every second he’s out there, not to mention how he (and Montrezl Harrell) cramps the spacing for the rest of the offense. Anthony Davis said the loss was on him and he’s 100% right. Montrezl Harrell was able to score on Phoenix’s backups, but he also gave it right back on defense. Much like the matchup against the Houston Rockets a season ago, this doesn’t feel like a matchup for the traditional bigs. Marc Gasol is a traditional big but he’s much more equipped to hang on the perimeter defensively and keep the offense humming. Markieff Morris nearly built a house with the number of bricks he hoisted to end the regular season, but he brings much more mobility defensively that likely will be needed when Ayton rests. I have no doubts that LeBron James and Anthony Davis (who dropped a 42 point, 15 rebound performance on these same Suns just two weeks ago) will respond. Frank Vogel has historically been a game too late to make adjustments in a playoff series, but he will make them. Playing Davis more at the 5, starting Gasol over Drummond, and playing Morris over Harrell *should* work, in my opinion. I think the matchup calls for it. If it doesn’t work, then the Lakers are *really* in trouble.

Knicks-Hawks: The Elfrid Payton Conundrum

The Knicks got 44 points on 21-36 shooting from 6th Man of the Year Finalist Derrick Rose, Alec Burks (who had 27 of them thangs), and Immanuel Quickley. Elfrid Payton had 0 points while missing all of his shots from the field. Defenses have ignored Payton all season long; the Knicks’ Net Rating with Payton on the floor during the regular season was -8.9 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. That number was the fifth-worst on the team and by far the worst amongst those that get legit minutes on the Knicks, let alone from someone who starts games for New York. While All-Star Julius Randle navigated that minefield all season-long, it caught up to him on Sunday, scoring just 15 points on 23 shots with all the enhanced attention Randle got. The Knicks may not be able to get by with *any* Elfrid minutes for the rest of this series. I would’ve made the change a while ago, but now is probably the time to switch Elfrid’s starting spot over to one of the aforementioned three bench gunners. I’d start Immanuel Quickley in Payton’s place since Quickley, while he can bring the ball up and playmake, doesn’t the ball in his hands as often as Rose or Burks does, can spread the floor better for Randle and RJ Barrett to operate (Quickley shot 38.9% from three during his rookie season), and keeps Rose and Burks in their same super-sub role off the bench.

Jazz-Grizzlies: Utah’s Wing Shortage

The lack of a big, long, rangy, athletic, defensive wing has been apparent all year for the Jazz. I didn’t think it was so glaring that it meant Dillon Brooks would drop 31 points on them though! Utah’s offense stalled in the first half, but Bojan Bogdanovic and Mike Conley nearly brought them all the way back in the second. The return of All-Star Donovan Mitchell will likely resuscitate Utah’s offense once he returns from his ankle injury. It sounded like that could’ve been last night, but Utah held him out an extra game to be cautious. But, and no disrespect to Dillon Brooks (which surely is a signal that disrespect is on the horizon), if the Jazz can’t stop *him* from scoring, then how exactly are they going to slow down either Luka Doncic or Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the next round (if they advance) and possibly LeBron James in the Western Conference Finals should that matchup occur. That’s a big problem down the horizon for Utah. First, however, they need to figure out how to cross the Dillon Brooks-sized bridge in front of them before they get to the next one.

In NBA

The Play-In Is Working and Here to Stay

May 3, 2021 No Comments

Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic blasted the notion of the NBA’s newly-minted play-in system three weeks, adding that he ‘didn’t understand the idea of the play-in.’ Just last night, Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James took that sentiment a step further, saying that whoever came up with the idea of the play-in ‘should be fired.’ While hilarious that these quotes came out only while the teams of those respective players were in danger of having to play in the play-in and confirming that there is a little bit of Stugotz in everybody, it does let us the viewers know that this idea is not exactly what you’d call popular amongst some players. Maybe you could quibble with the fact that this new system was introduced in a truncated 72 game season where games are stacked on top of each other like a house of cards. Fair. But these quotes also confirm that the play-in system is working and likely won’t be going anywhere any time soon.

For those unfamiliar with how this play-in system works, here’s a little debriefing. Teams seeded 1-6 in each conference are automatically berthed into the playoffs. Teams 7-8 play each other in a head-to-head with the winner of that game earning the 7 seed. Seeds 9-10 square off in a single-elimination game akin to the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. The loser goes home, and the winner faces the loser of the 7-8 matchup. The winner of that game earns the 8 seed, and the loser earns a vacation to Cancun if vacations are still a thing during the age of COVID-19.

This system is working for a myriad of reasons, one being the disincentive to tanking. While tanking is still going on (look no further than Oklahoma City’s 57 point loss to the Indiana Pacers during the weekend. Yes, you read that right. Fifty-seven.), it isn’t as rampant as we got accustomed to prior to the NBA adjusted the lottery odds in September of 2017 that took place for the 2018-19 season. Before the 2019 Draft Lottery, the Knicks, Cavaliers, Suns, and Bulls (in that order) finished with the four worst records in the NBA. With the lottery drawing for the top four picks, only one of those four bottom-feeders (at the time) picked inside the top four: the Knicks at the three spot, eventually selecting RJ Barrett (having a very good season, by the way!). The Pelicans and Grizzlies, tied for the 8th-worst record in the league, both jumped into the top two to select Zion Williamson and Ja Morant, while the Lakers got the fourth pick and used it to trade for Anthony Davis.

Because of this rule change, tanking became a little more arduous. It’s one thing to tank and be able to draft Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons; it’s another to tank for Coby White. Add this along with the chance to work your way into the playoffs, and tanking has suddenly become less en vogue than ever. Just look to those aforementioned teams in the Lakers and the Mavericks. The Lakers just lost back-to-back games to the Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors, neither of whom would even qualify for the play-in had the season ended today. The Mavericks have lost three games to the Kings in the span of two weeks. The Lakers lost to the Wizards on Wednesday, currently holders of the 10 seed in the East, but the Wizards dropped one to the Mavericks on Saturday in an absolute thriller. Would that game be as intense without both teams clearly playing for something at the end of the season? Who is to say.

Another reason the play-in is working is the built-in buffer for injuries or, particularly with this season, other absences. For example, Steph Curry of the Golden State has played in 56 of the Warriors’ 64 games this season. The Warriors are 1-7 in those games Steph has missed. Had Steph been healthy for the entirety of the Warriors’ season, their win percentage in games he has played multiplied over 64 games would put them at around 35 wins, one win behind the trio of the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, and Portland Trail Blazers all tied for fifth in the West with 36 wins apiece. Instead, the Warriors are ninth in the West. Without the play-in, the Warriors would be out of the playoff field entirely at the moment (but only sit 0.5 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies). There are plenty of other examples of teams that have been ravaged by injuries or COVID-19 or both this season, too many to count. But the play-in gives them longer to get right and compete for a playoff berth.

Most importantly, though, what the play-in brings is added intrigue. For the reasons listed above, more teams are playing more high-stakes games. People want to see what happens at seeds 5-10 just as much as who finishes 1-4. I sure as hell know that as a Laker fan, I don’t want my team to play an extra game it doesn’t have to play, but it is a very real possibility that happens. Commissioner Adam Silver has always wanted to implement elements of European soccer into the NBA and may have found a way to do so in the play-in. While the play-in isn’t as dramatic as relegation in European leagues from the top league to the second division for the bottom three teams of said league, it adds that sort of element to the seedings of the regular season. It makes the regular season matter. Isn’t that we as viewers wanted? That all of these games actually serve a purpose and aren’t just placeholders for the playoffs come every April, or May in this case. Every game matters, or at least matters more now, and that’s a good thing.

The end of NBA seasons of years prior have mostly felt like a drag. Outside of the race for the 8th seed, there hasn’t been much intrigue. Most playoff matchups are locked in, most teams on the outside are tanking for the future. The new play-in system the NBA has added has mostly eradicated all of those problems. The more teams playing for something, the better. Though star players like LeBron and Luka have railed against it, the likelihood is that it isn’t going away any time soon. If it adds legitimate intrigue to the end of each season, then we should be looking at that as a good thing.

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Luka and the Mavericks Are Dangerous But Are Missing An Ingredient

April 19, 2021 No Comments

We shouldn’t have been surprised to see Luka Doncic convert an aptly-named teardrop while off-balance to all-but drop fans of the Memphis Grizzlies to tears as Luka snatched victory from the jaws of defeat late Wednesday Night. It sure isn’t the first time Luka has crushed hearts as the buzzer sounds: the Portland Trail Blazers were amongst his first victims during his rookie season, and who could forget the rare Mike Breen double-BANG! Luka gifted us in the bubble against the Los Angeles Clippers. But isn’t just buzzer-beaters that makes Luka and the Mavericks tough foes for any opponent they’d see in the playoffs (if they get there and don’t succumb to the play-in games). They’re clicking at the right time.

The Mavericks got off to a slow start this season after getting ravaged with injuries and COVID issues. Sure, that’s something most every team has dealt with this season, but the Mavs could not escape it either to begin the season, with Kristaps Porzingis’ absence looming the largest during this stretch. The Mavericks tipped the season to an auspicious 9-14 start, looking a step slow and not as crisp we’ve become accustomed to seeing them offensively. However, once the team got healthy and settled, they’ve taken off, starting from February 6th on where they took down the Golden State Warriors on primetime television. Since then, the Mavericks are 21-10, good for the 7th most in the NBA in that span, with the 8th-best Net Rating at +4.1, trailing only the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz, Philadelphia 76ers, the aforementioned Clippers, the Milwaukee Bucks, and the Denver Nuggets.

This surge all begins with Doncic. It sort of has to when a team’s catalyst amidst its resurgence leads the league in usage, right? Despite a gargantuan usage rate, Luka’s efficiency rests amongst the elites of the elite in both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. We all know Luka is puppetmaster of a playmaker, that his deceleration allows him to put defenders on skates and continuously rumble to the rim despite the lack of explosive athleticism, that he’s a free throw magnet. However, what has changed this season is the prominence of his three-ball. Luka’s three-point percentage is up to a career-high 35.9% while shooting a monstrous number of threes per game (8.3). That may not seem all that noteworthy, but when Doncic’s previous career-best three-point percentage was just 32.7%, any jump in efficiency will do. What’s most impressive about the jump in efficiency from Doncic is that almost all of the threes he takes are of the off-the-dribble variety. 343 of the 423 threes Doncic has taken have come off-the-dribble, according to NBA.com, and he’s hit on 127 of them, good for a 37% mark on said jumpers. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer broke down Luka’s deadly three-ball even further, but what makes Luka’s improvement in this area important is that it frees up all the other strengths of his game. He already was getting to these anyway, but playing up on him from 30 feet out allows him to get to the rim with less traffic around him, to make drive-and-kick opportunities more vast, pick-and-roll reads more clear. Everything was on display against the San Antonio Spurs last Sunday night. Blitz Doncic in pick and roll: he’d find his roll man for a dunk. Switch either a big or guard onto him he’d either dance with the big man to get to his stepback three or punk the smaller guard on the block for an easy bucket (Doncic generates 1.14 points per post-up, the fourth-fattest mark in the league). With the jumper added to his arsenal, you just have to hope he misses the threes he takes, or else he’s unguardable.

Luka’s not the only one improving on his game in a Mavericks uniform. Kristaps Porzingis received a lot of hype during his time in the Big Apple, but the leap towards superstardom that perhaps was evident in Porzingis’ earlier years hasn’t quite happened. Porzingis doesn’t exactly have a ton of wiggle off the bounce to initiate the offense, nor does he have the bulk to soak up possessions on the block the way a Joel Embiid would, but that’s ok! He’s still a very damn good player. What I’ve liked the most from Porzingis is he’s finally getting a little more frisky on the block. As opposed to exclusively turning over his shoulder to rise for fadeaways or shooting over the top of smaller defenders, Porzingis is finally starting to muscle through guys who meet him on the block. Among players with roughly the number of post-ups Porzingis has logged this season, only three players have been more efficient. Those three? Kawhi Leonard, Joel Embiid, and Nikola Jokic. Not bad company. Porzingis sits in the 62nd percentile of post-up efficiency; not bad, could be better, but reigns supreme compared to the 27th percentile he found himself amongst a year ago.

Though boosting his efficiency on post-ups has benefited Porzingis and the Mavericks, there still is something missing here. The Mavericks need another dynamic ballhandler who can routinely get in the teeth of opposing defenses to take some pressure off of Doncic. Porzingis surely isn’t that, through no fault of his own. Porzingis’ handle is about as stiff as Spongebob on stilts. If he gets run off the three-point line he can attack in a straight-line dribble, but car crashes tend to occur once he runs into traffic. Porzingis has shot 48.9% on drives this season, but on just 86 drives (in 37 games), according to NBA.com’s Second Spectrum tracking data. His size and shooting and Luka’s playmaking creates advantageous situations for Porzingis, but rarely does he bring the ruckus to the opposition on his own volition. The same can be said for his teammates. Doncic leads the entire NBA in drives with 1,112 on the season, yet second place on his team is backup point guard and sixth man of the year candidate Jalen Brunson is 51st in the league in drives on the year with 452. Luka is great and can backpack the Mavericks to wins on his own, but when better competition actually has time to practice and scout what you do, you become easier to guard when you lack extra dynamism. Though the Mavs are playing well at the right time, having another guy for Luka to truly lean on to run the show is one factor holding Dallas back from being true title contenders. No one can ever have enough burly wings to defend the apex predators in the league, and Julius Randle gave Mark Cuban and crew a hearty reminder that acquiring another one of such players (this is a Dorian Finney-Smith-friendly zone here!) wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Make no mistake about it, however: the Mavericks are a problem. Neither the Suns nor Jazz should want to see the Mavericks in a playoff series should they make it through the play-in. In either series, Dallas would walk into it with the best player on the floor. When you can say that, you got a chance. The Mavericks are not yet title contenders but are close. They’re a piece away. Luckily, they will have max cap space next summer to address some of these lingering concerns. They have to use it too because the year after would be the first Luka’s rookie extension kicks in, which will surely be for the max he can get (which would be around either 25 or 30% of the cap, depending on whether Luka meets certain qualifications for the 30%, which he likely already has and almost certainly will). Though the big fish many hoped would be available are now gone, there still will be plenty of options for the Mavericks to enter title contention. They’re very close. Not quite there yet, but on the precipice of yearly contention. That’s not a bad spot to be in.